Trade-Forex.info Sunday outlook, 4 October 2026. Assessment: 07:09 CEST, Europe/Copenhagen. Horizon: tonight’s weekly reopening and preparation for 5 to 9 October. Expected EUR/USD direction: neutral. Neither currency is favoured without fresh, timestamped quotes.
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New publication dates, older policy discussions
This week’s central-bank records need two dates attached to them: when the discussion happened and when its record becomes available. That distinction matters for EUR/USD because the coming Fed minutes describe a meeting held before Friday’s US employment report. Reading them as a response to that report would mix up the evidence.
Spot forex is currently in its regular weekend pause. The usual weekly reference reopening is Sunday 4 October at 23:00 Copenhagen time, or 21:00 UTC and 17:00 New York time. This is an indicative market convention. A particular broker’s instrument hours and breaks can differ.
The evidence available before the opening
The BLS September Employment Situation was released on Friday 2 October at 08:30 US Eastern Time, equivalent to 14:30 CEST. It reports a nonfarm payroll increase of 29,000 and unemployment of 4.2%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.1% over the month and 3.0% over the year. July and August payroll changes were revised down by a combined 60,000.
Our editorial reading is that restrained job and wage growth provides a reason to question how much further tightening the US economy could absorb. It does not establish the Fed’s next decision or prove that the dollar has weakened. No verified consensus comparison or current exchange-rate response is used here.
Eurostat’s 2 October flash estimate places September annual euro-area inflation at 3.8%, after 3.2% in August. Energy inflation is estimated at 18.8%, while services inflation is 3.2%. The composition matters: a higher headline reading with a large energy component does not, by itself, settle the ECB’s policy response. Full September data are scheduled for 16 October.
What to look for in the policy records
Wednesday 7 October: the Fed calendar schedules minutes of the 15 to 16 September FOMC meeting at 14:00 US Eastern Time, or 20:00 CEST. Their contents remain unpublished at this assessment. The useful question is which conditions officials attached to their policy outlook, then how Friday’s newer employment evidence relates to those conditions.
Thursday 8 October: the ECB lists its next monetary-policy accounts release. The date is confirmed; the source page checked does not specify an exact time. The accounts explain a previous meeting. They are not a new interest-rate decision, and their discussion should be assessed against the later inflation estimate.
For calendar accuracy, September US CPI belongs to the following week. The BLS schedule currently places it on 14 October at 08:30 Eastern Time, or 14:30 CEST. These selected events are a preparation guide, not a complete calendar.
Main scenario and conditions that would change it
Main scenario, dated 4 October: neutral into the reopening. No stronger currency is selected. The macro evidence leaves competing interpretations, and there is no fresh verified EUR/USD quote at this weekend cutoff. Neutral is a waiting assessment, not a promise of a quiet opening.
Up alternative: communication that reduces expected Fed tightening relative to the ECB could weaken USD and strengthen EUR, supporting EUR/USD. Down alternative: communication that reinforces relative US policy firmness, or verified renewed defensive demand for dollars, could strengthen USD and weaken EUR.
Fresh policy statements, corrections to the data and independently verified developments at reopening would trigger a reassessment. Before describing an actual currency move, we would need a timestamped price source with its delay stated. No numerical exchange-rate forecast, trade level or probability is supplied.
Use our Forex Market Hours tool to plan indicative sessions across time zones. Its scheduled windows do not measure liquidity, and public holidays are not automatically applied.
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Primary releases and schedules linked above were checked on 4 October 2026. HFM’s current referral destination, eligibility notice, application route and risk notice were also checked today. The commission relationship disclosed in the account block does not determine this editorial assessment.
This is market commentary and a personal editorial opinion, not investment advice or a recommendation to trade. Forex and CFD trading involves a high risk of loss. Forecasts are uncertain and markets may move against these scenarios.