Trade-Forex.info Thursday outlook, 29 October 2026. Assessment: 07:07 CET, Europe/Copenhagen. EUR/USD direction: neutral. Neither EUR nor USD is favoured without fresh verified quotes. Horizon: today’s European and US sessions, with reassessment when the scheduled releases arrive.
Published by Trade-Forex.info, operated by KPdesign (CVR 41134194).
The Fed decision is now a published fact
The FOMC statement dated 28 October kept the federal funds target range at 3.75% to 4.00%. The vote was 10 to 2. The two dissenters preferred an increase of 0.25 percentage point. Their preference was not the committee’s adopted decision.
The statement described strong economic expansion and inflation that remained elevated. Our editorial reading is that an unchanged rate does not, by itself, establish a softer policy message. Equally, the dissent does not establish that the next meeting will produce a hike. That future decision is unknown.
The implementation note retains the rate on reserve balances at 3.90%, effective 29 October. This is an operational rate, distinct from the target range. Its effective date is today, while the policy announcement was published yesterday at 19:00 CET.
Two US releases precede the ECB
The BEA schedule lists the advance estimate of third-quarter GDP and September Personal Income and Outlays for 13:30 CET today. The official calendar file places both events at 12:30 UTC. This is 08:30 in Washington, still on daylight time, and 13:30 in Copenhagen, now on standard time.
These are scheduled publications, not verified results in this morning assessment. The GDP reference period is the third quarter. The income and outlays release covers September. Neither should be presented as a measurement of today’s activity, and we do not supply an invented consensus or outcome.
The ECB diary schedules its policy decision at 14:15 CET, followed by the press conference at 14:45 CET. That leaves 45 minutes between the scheduled US data and the ECB decision. A conclusion drawn from the first event may need to change after the second.
Main scenario: await the relative evidence
Our main scenario is neutral through the morning, with neither currency favoured. The known Fed decision supplies the US policy starting point. The next comparison requires today’s European policy communication and the forthcoming US evidence. No fresh timestamped market quote has been obtained, so this is a macro and calendar outlook rather than a numerical exchange-rate forecast.
Down alternative: persistent US price pressure or resilient US activity, together with softer ECB guidance relative to the Fed, could strengthen USD against EUR and lower EUR/USD. Up alternative: softer US price or activity evidence alongside firmer relative ECB guidance could strengthen EUR against USD and lift EUR/USD.
The actual releases, revisions, policy explanation and press-conference answers are the conditions for reassessment. Conflicting messages may justify retaining a neutral view. These alternatives assign no probabilities and do not establish a measured market reaction. No target, entry or exit level is provided.
What to compare after publication
The useful question is how the new information changes the relative outlook, not whether a headline sounds strong in isolation. Keep the reference periods and the policy timetable visible. Today’s dated assessment records what was known this morning; it is not an account of decisions or data that arrive later.
Ad for HFM. We may earn commission from eligible referrals.
Sign up to begin trading with HFM
Affiliate link. Account availability and the contracting entity depend on your country and client category. If routed to HF Markets (Europe) Ltd, only Professional per se clients and Eligible Counterparties may apply through broker contact.
Sources, interests and risk
The linked primary statements, calendars and HFM destination were checked on 29 October before the scheduled US data and ECB decision. No fresh timestamped FX quote, quantified broker-quote delay or verified market consensus was obtained. Affiliate commission does not determine this editorial assessment.
This is market commentary and a personal editorial opinion, not investment advice or a recommendation to trade. Forex and CFD trading involves a high risk of loss. Forecasts are uncertain and markets may move against these scenarios.