10 November 2026 | Trade-Forex.info | EUR/USD assessment: neutral for the remainder of the New York session. US consumer prices rose more slowly in October than in September, while inflation excluding food and energy kept the same monthly pace. The October release gives both currencies a reason to wait for clearer evidence on relative interest rates.
Headline inflation eased and core held steady
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) published October CPI and Real Earnings at 14:30 Copenhagen time (08:30 US Eastern). Headline CPI rose 0.4% from September after seasonal adjustment, following a 0.6% rise in September. Energy prices rose 0.7% after 5.2% in September. Food rose 0.5% and shelter rose 0.3% in October. A smaller rise in energy prices helped bring down the headline pace.
CPI excluding food and energy rose 0.3% for a third month. Used vehicle prices fell, while medical care and motor vehicle insurance were among the categories that rose. That mix gives less evidence of broad cooling than the headline alone. The BLS could not publish October annual headline or core CPI changes because the corresponding October 2025 index values are missing.
Real average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls were unchanged on the month. Nominal hourly pay and the headline price index both rose 0.4%. Real weekly earnings were also flat. The real pay figure shows what the same price data meant for purchasing power.
What Waller and Lane said
In his London speech before the CPI release, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he was leaning toward a 25 basis point increase at the December meeting even if inflation improved. He argued that the FOMC should consider 50 basis points if monthly core CPI was around 0.3% or higher. October core CPI was in the range he described. His remarks expressed his personal policy view before the data. The committee has yet to make its December decision.
ECB Executive Board member Philip Lane’s later London keynote examined how central bank communication shapes expectations. He explained how the ECB sets out the criteria behind its rate decisions. The speech offered no new rate decision. The ECB held rates on 29 October, and Eurostat’s October flash estimate put euro area headline inflation at 4.0% year on year, with inflation excluding energy steady at 2.3%.
Scenarios for the rest of 10 November
Main scenario: EUR/USD neutral. Slower US headline inflation and steady core inflation give a mixed signal. Neither currency has a clear advantage on the verified macro evidence. This assessment uses no live EUR/USD quote.
Alternative scenario: EUR/USD lower, USD stronger. If short-term US yields rise relative to comparable euro area yields and the wider gap persists, the prospect of tighter Fed policy could favour the dollar. A sustained narrowing of the gap could favour the euro instead. A brief move that reverses would leave the neutral assessment in place.
Sources BLS October CPI (USDL-26-1685), BLS October Real Earnings (USDL-26-1686), Waller’s 10 November speech, Lane’s 10 November keynote, ECB October decision and Eurostat October flash inflation.
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