11 November 2026 | Trade-Forex.info | EUR/USD intraday view, neutral for the rest of the New York session. The ECB has published its analysis of refining costs and energy inflation. Our updated assessment favours neither currency. The morning outlook and its US inflation context follow below.
Afternoon update, 11 November 2026, 14:45 CET
The ECB’s analysis of refining costs and margins is now available. Its weekly calendar scheduled the pre-release for 10:00 CET today. The box explains how disrupted refining activity can raise fuel costs beyond the change in crude oil prices. Its model comparison produces higher energy inflation under the September assumptions despite lower oil-price assumptions, largely because refining costs and margins are higher.
The comparison uses projection cut-off dates of 21 May and 19 August 2026. Its chart of recent fuel prices and margins runs to 28 October. Those dates define the evidence behind the analysis. The full Economic Bulletin Issue 7 remains scheduled for 12 November.
Our EUR/USD assessment remains neutral for the rest of today’s New York session. The published analysis adds detail to the euro area’s energy-inflation risk. A durable change in relative ECB and Fed rate expectations would be needed to favour either currency. Today’s reviewed Fed and BLS calendars still reflect the Veterans Day break, and October US PCE remains scheduled for 25 November.
A quieter US calendar after the inflation report
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released October CPI on Tuesday, 10 November, at 14:30 Copenhagen time (08:30 US Eastern). Headline prices rose 0.4% from September after seasonal adjustment, following September’s 0.6% increase. Inflation excluding food and energy stayed at 0.3% for a third consecutive month. Slower headline inflation and persistent core inflation leave different signals for monetary policy.
The annual comparison needs particular care. BLS could not publish annual headline or core CPI inflation for October because the corresponding October 2025 index values are unavailable. A September annual rate cannot be carried forward as October’s result. The monthly figures remain published observations with their own reference period.
Bowman’s assessment and the next official PCE release
In remarks dated 10 November, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman said inflation pressures had lasted longer than she expected and might be spreading. She also stressed the costs that further tightening could impose on sectors already affected by higher interest rates. Her approach remained conditional on incoming information and financial conditions.
Bowman discussed an estimate of October core PCE inflation informed by CPI. That estimate is her assessment. The Bureau of Economic Analysis calendar schedules the official October Personal Income and Outlays report for 25 November at 14:30 Copenhagen time (08:30 US Eastern). Today’s outlook treats that release as pending. The distinction matters because an estimate can influence expectations before the official measure is available.
Morning calendar and upcoming releases
The Fed calendar marks 11 November as Veterans Day and moves the day’s scheduled daily and weekly statistical releases to Thursday, 12 November. BLS also marks the holiday. The next listed BLS inflation release is October producer prices on Friday, 13 November, at 14:30 Copenhagen time. A US holiday does not establish a single global foreign-exchange closing time. Dealer and instrument availability must be checked separately.
The ECB calendar lists Piero Cipollone at a digital euro roundtable at 08:50 CET, an Economic Bulletin article on refining margins and energy inflation at 10:00, and Christine Lagarde at the Paris Peace Forum at 10:45. All three times are Copenhagen time. These events are still ahead at this morning’s check. Their subjects do not establish a new interest-rate decision. The ECB’s last decision, on 29 October, left its three policy rates unchanged.
Scenarios for 11 November
Main scenario, EUR/USD neutral. Neither currency has a clear advantage from the verified evidence alone. This is a macro and calendar assessment without a fresh verified EUR/USD quote. A short-lived reaction to a headline would provide insufficient evidence to change the view.
Alternative scenario, EUR/USD lower and USD stronger. Clearer support for tighter US policy could favour the dollar if a wider US interest-rate advantage is sustained. A reassessment that instead narrows that advantage could favour the euro and lift EUR/USD. Material ECB communication, revised official data or a persistent change in relative rate expectations would trigger a fresh review. These conditions describe what would change the assessment through today’s New York session.
Sources checked on 11 November BLS October CPI, BLS November calendar, Bowman’s 10 November remarks, Fed November calendar, BEA release schedule, ECB weekly schedule and ECB 29 October decision, ECB refining costs and margins analysis and ECB Bulletin publication schedule.
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