Prior-Week High/Low Breakout

How the rule works

The previous week supplies a reference known before the new week starts. The first H1 close beyond that boundary tests a continuation hypothesis while avoiding a touch-only signal. The one-trade-per-week rule limits repeated whipsaw at a widely watched level, at the cost of missing a later successful second breakout.

Setup

• Define the completed reference week as Sunday 17:00 through Friday 17:00 America/New_York. Aggregate only available tradable H1 bars within that interval, after converting broker timestamps with a verified offset schedule. Freeze its maximum high and minimum low for the next trading week.
• A first breakout is a completed H1 cross from inside to outside a frozen weekly boundary. Allow at most one filled trade per week across both directions; cancel further signals after any entry. Skip holiday-shortened reference weeks if scheduled sessions are absent.

Indicators

• Previous calendar-week high/low
• ATR(14)
• EMA(50)

Long entry

• Buy next-bar ask after an H1 close above the frozen prior-week high and above EMA(50). Only the first valid long break per week is eligible.

Short entry

• Sell next-bar bid after an H1 close below prior-week low and below EMA(50); only first valid short break is eligible. If both sides break in one week, allow no second trade.

Stop loss

• Long SL = min(entry − 1.5×ATR14[1], prior-week high − 0.1×ATR14[1]); short SL = max(entry + 1.5×ATR14[1], prior-week low + 0.1×ATR14[1]). Skip if distance exceeds 3×ATR14 or fails executable-price/minimum-stop checks.

Exit

• Exit at 2R, or the first quote after a completed H1 close back inside the broken weekly boundary. Flatten Friday at 16:45 America/New_York, before the normal weekend close; if the broker closes earlier, use its last liquid session instead. Do not open new trades after Friday 14:00 New York.

Risk and position size

• Risk 0.50% equity. Cap combined risk where several positions express the same USD direction at 1%.

Costs and execution

• Weekly candles depend on broker timezone and Sunday fragments. Construct the reference explicitly, prevent look-ahead by freezing it only after week close, and include spread, slippage and any rollover swap.

When the method can fail

• Avoid shortened holiday weeks, weeks containing exceptional central-bank decisions and levels already pierced repeatedly. False breaks around widely watched highs/lows are common.

Worked example

• Hypothetical frozen weekly high is 1.1000. H1 closes from below it to 1.1010, above EMA50. With next ask 1.1012 and ATR14 0.0020, initial SL is min(1.0982,1.0998) = 1.0982; 2R target is 1.1072. A later second weekly break is ignored after the first entry.

Historical test results

No tested pair meets the complete research-screen criterion. Positive cells alone do not qualify the strategy.

24 mechanical runs across 4 pairs on H1. Decisions use completed strategy bars; fills use native ICMarketsEU-Demo M15 Bid candles with explicitly modelled costs. Full window: 1 January 2025–18 September 2026. Each row starts with an independent USD10,000 account.

Interpretation: these are mechanical bar-model tests, not verified real-tick or live performance. Price rules were held fixed; subjective market-quality exclusions remain outside the mechanical model. Strategy adaptation requires a new test.

Download all test metrics and assumptions (JSON) · Download simulated trade logs and reproducible research code · Broker commission and swap documentation

Execution conventions

• Bar [0] is forming; [1] is the most recently completed bar. Unless explicitly stated otherwise, indicators use Close with zero plot shift and signals use completed bars. EMA is exponential, SMA is arithmetic and MT5 ATR is its native true-range average. Use at least 300 completed warm-up bars; a longer rule-specific requirement takes priority.
• A close-based signal is executed at the first available quote after the close, never retrospectively at the signal close. Buy at ask, sell at bid; close longs at bid and shorts at ask. A standing stop or target can fill within a bar. A gap through a stop fills at the first executable price, which can be worse than the stop.
• R means the initial entry-to-protective-stop distance, fixed at entry. Convert that distance into account-currency loss using the symbol tick size and loss-side tick value. Lots = cash risk / loss per lot, rounded down to the broker volume step. Round prices to the trade tick and recheck risk plus minimum stop/freeze distances before submitting. Budget commission and slippage separately; skip if minimum size exceeds the risk limit.
• Use one position per symbol and no averaging down. A trailing stop only tightens after a completed bar and becomes active on the next quote. The entry bar is holding bar one; a time exit executes on the quote after the specified holding bar closes. When a hard stop and a close-based exit compete, the stop already active takes precedence. With OHLC-only data, assume stop before target if both can occur in one bar; tick data is needed to resolve the order.
• The article defines the price rule. Any discretionary news exclusion changes the tested variant and must be recorded in advance. Map broker timestamps to the named London/New York time zone using historical daylight-saving offsets; do not assume a fixed UTC offset. Include spread, commission, slippage, overnight financing and triple-swap days in a profitability test.

Adapt and test your version

• Treat these inputs as a reproducible starting specification. Choose a currency pair, session and holding period that match the time you can monitor the market, then record any changes to indicator periods, thresholds, stop distance or exits as a new version.
• Change one hypothesis at a time. Reserve a later period and additional pairs for evaluation before looking at their results. Include your account’s actual trading and financing costs, compare small parameter changes, and forward-test on demo. A selected profitable window does not validate the strategy or its modified version.

Reproduce the chart in MT5

• Open EURUSD on H1. Add the indicators listed above through Insert → Indicators; use Close and zero shift unless a different setting is specified. The Data Window displays exact values for the selected completed candle.
• Compare the signal candle with the required earlier bars before moving forward. Use the crosshair to read prices and times. For custom channels, session levels or Supertrend, reproduce the formula in this guide and check the calculation before relying on an external indicator.
• Draw entry, initial SL and target only after a candle has satisfied every condition. Label planned levels as plans; they do not demonstrate a historical fill. The featured chart is genuine historical MT5 context and is not a trade-performance report.

Sources

• MT5 Help: Moving Average — Indicator/platform definition; not strategy performance.
• IC Markets EU: Forex Product Specification — Broker chart timezone and New York close alignment; verify the historical offset for any session-based test.