Monte Carlo Drawdown Scenario Calculator
Explore possible equity paths under fixed win-rate, reward, risk and cost assumptions. The simulated percentiles describe this model, not future trading odds.
The simulated model
Each trade is an independent Bernoulli draw with the entered win probability. A winning trade earns the specified gross R; a losing trade loses 1R. Costs are subtracted in R from either result. Risk is recalculated as a fixed fraction of current equity. Equity begins at 1 and cannot fall below zero. A fixed pseudorandom seed makes the same inputs reproducible.
The return percentiles come from ending equity across simulations. Maximum drawdown is the largest percentage fall from a prior equity peak on each path; its median and 95th percentile summarize those pathwise maxima. Percentiles use the sorted sample at floor((n−1) × percentile).
Read the uncertainty honestly
These are conditional model results. They exclude serial dependence, fat-tailed losses beyond 1R, changing spreads, parameter uncertainty, margin liquidation and execution failure. Real trading can behave much worse. A narrow simulated range is not a reliable real-world confidence interval.
Calibrate assumptions from documented out-of-sample observations. Use expectancy to check cost assumptions before running scenarios. All calculations stay in your browser.
Frequently asked questions
Are these probabilities of my future trading results?
No. They describe the model with independent trades and fixed entered parameters. Markets can change, losses can cluster and actual execution can differ.
Why does the same seed return the same result?
A seeded random generator makes the scenario reproducible. Keep the seed unchanged when comparing one input change, while recognising that a repeatable simulation is not a forecast.
Related tools and guides
Educational research, not personal investment advice. CFDs are leveraged products and can cause rapid losses. A calculation, indicator or stop cannot guarantee an account outcome.