Trading Expectancy and Break-Even Calculator
Combine your observed win rate, gross average win, gross average loss and trading cost to estimate expectancy and the break-even win rate.
Use a consistent unit
Enter every amount in the same unit: account currency, pips for comparable equal-sized trades, or R multiples. If you use R, one R is the initial risk on that trade. This form expects gross winners and losers, then subtracts average costs once. If your averages are already net of fees, set the separate cost input to zero.
Expectancy = win probability × average win − loss probability × average loss − cost. Break-even win probability = (average loss + cost) ÷ (average win + average loss). A required win rate above 100% means no win rate can offset the entered costs.
What the number cannot tell you
A positive sample estimate is not proof of a durable edge. Small samples, selection bias, correlated trades and changing costs matter. Retain a separate out-of-sample period and record every eligible trade. The default 45%, 1.5R win, 1R loss and 0.1R cost give an expectancy of 0.025R and a 44% break-even win rate.
Explore the consequences of fixed assumptions with the Monte Carlo drawdown calculator.
Frequently asked questions
What does positive expectancy mean?
It means the average result is positive under your entered win rate, average win, average loss and cost assumptions. It does not establish that a strategy will retain those characteristics.
Which units should I enter?
Use consistent units for average wins, losses and costs, such as R or account-currency cash. Mixing dollars, pips and R makes the result meaningless.
Related tools and guides
Educational research, not personal investment advice. CFDs are leveraged products and can cause rapid losses. A calculation, indicator or stop cannot guarantee an account outcome.